New Delhi:
Former Pakistan foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has warned that India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could lead to war, calling the move “illegal and provocative.” His remarks come about two months after New Delhi halted the landmark water-sharing pact.
“We do not want war, but if water is used as a weapon, Pakistan will be forced to act and we are in a position to defeat India just as we have before,” the PPP chairman said during the National Assembly’s budget session on Monday.
Bilawal Bhutto accused India of violating international law by unilaterally halting the 1960 agreement after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack. “India has two options: share water fairly, or we will take it from all six rivers,” he warned.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, governs the distribution of water from six rivers between India and Pakistan.
With Home Minister Amit Shah signalling the treaty will “never be restored“, the potential consequences for Pakistan are wide-ranging and severe.
Agricultural Impact
Pakistan’s agriculture depends almost entirely on the Indus River system. The western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, account for over 80 per cent of irrigation in the country. Without the IWT’s protections, India could restrict flow or alter water timing, directly threatening food security.
Crops like wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane could see massive yield drops. Experts warn this could lead to a 30-40 per cent reduction in agricultural output by 2030 if disruptions continue. For a country where nearly 40 per cent of the population is involved in farming, the fallout could be catastrophic.
Energy
Hydropower plants like Tarbela, Mangla, and Neelum-Jhelum rely on consistent river flows. These installations contribute roughly 30 per cent of Pakistan’s electricity.
Reduced water flow would slash generation capacity, forcing Pakistan to increase reliance on imported fuel and thermal plants. That not only raises costs but also risks nationwide blackouts, disrupting industry, agriculture, and households. An energy crisis would compound inflation and deepen Pakistan’s economic problems.
Water Scarcity
Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad depend on water from the Indus system. A sudden cut or diversion could lead to shortages in drinking water, sanitation problems, and even civil unrest.
In rural areas, reduced river flow may push communities to extract more groundwater, further depleting aquifers and increasing soil salinity. Inter-provincial water disputes, particularly between Punjab and Sindh, could escalate.
Economic Consequences
Pakistan’s economy is heavily water-dependent. Agriculture alone contributes over 24 per cent of GDP and employs a large chunk of the population. A disruption in water supply could lead to a 1.5-2 per cent annual GDP loss. Export revenues driven by crops and textiles would decline, while inflation rises. The burden on government subsidies and emergency relief efforts could also grow, worsening the fiscal deficit.
Ecological Damage
The Indus Delta, already endangered by reduced sediment and saline intrusion, could see further degradation. This would hurt fisheries, biodiversity, and coastal communities. The sudden closure could also raise the scope for flood or drought.
